Editorial rights purchased from iStock. Photo by ablokhin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t like to show his cards. Secrecy has always been at the center of his power. But the U.S. president is changing the game, and Putin is dealing with something he is not accustomed to.
It’s one thing if Aleksei Navalny says things Putin doesn’t like. Navalny is in prison, so he’s no longer a threat. In fact, Navalny will stand trial this week for new charges of embezzlement and contempt of court — which could add 15 years to his current sentence. Critics of Putin say the trial is being scheduled now in hopes the situation in Ukraine will “divert attention away from his case.”
Putin needs to keep Navalny in prison for a couple of reasons. First, Navalny is the only serious threat to Putin’s political future. Second, Navalny is popular worldwide, not just in Russia. So, while Putin would prefer to conduct the trial in secret, doing it while the rest of us are focused on Ukraine is the next best thing.
This sort of maneuvering used to work well for Putin, but now his tactics are outdated and too well-known. Granted, he can still imprison people based on false charges and he can still poison anyone who betrays him — even if they are as far away as a park bench in England.
What he can’t do, is operate in secret anymore.
President Biden is taking a new approach — it’s called transparency. When U.S. intelligence agencies report on Putin’s activities, Biden makes sure that information reaches the public — and he’s doing it in real-time. In fact, he’s actually ahead of Putin. When Putin began increasing his troop presence in the countries bordering Ukraine, Biden suggested Putin might be planning to invade Ukraine. This left Putin with only two choices: admit his plans to invade or deny them.
Both options are bad for Putin. If he says he won’t invade and then he does, he loses credibility on the world stage. If he admits his plan to invade, he loses the advantage of a surprise attack — as well as encouraging the wrath of the rest of the world, who recognizes Ukraine as a sovereign power.
The brilliance of Biden’s strategy is that it puts Putin on the defensive.
In addition to announcing details of Putin’s troop deployments, the U.S. president released information last December about a false flag operation Putin was planning to use as justification for an invasion of Ukraine.
False flag operations of this sort are not new for the Russian president. What is new, is public exposure of his plans before he has the chance to execute them.
As recently as late January, after Putin had already amassed over 100,000 troops at the Ukraine border, many were skeptical of Biden’s concerns. But since then, the Biden administration has launched a strategic initiative to share intelligence with European governments and especially with Ukraine. This effort intensified over the past week, and now they have overwhelmingly “swung behind the Biden administration’s assessment.”
Putin’s response to the transparency scheme has been to insist that he is merely conducting “military exercises.” It might be tempting to believe the Russian president. He’s a trained liar — he doesn’t blink. But like former-President Trump, Putin’s power comes from his ability to mislead others.
Biden is focused on diffusing that power. His weapon of choice: transparency — which is to Putin like sunlight to a vampire.
It’s worth noting that Putin’s so-called “military exercises” seriously compromise Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. In addition to deploying tens of thousands of troops in Belarus, Russia has deployed warships, which have the potential to shut down international shipping lanes.
The effort to destabilize Ukraine includes more than a military show of force. On Tuesday, Feb 15, Ukraine was hit by a cyber-attack, affecting several ministries (including the defense ministry) as well as Ukraine’s two main banks. While we don’t have conclusive evidence that Russia was behind the attacks, they do seem the likely culprit.
The attacks were short-lived and do not appear to have caused permanent damage, but some believe “the apparently low-level denial-of-service attacks might be a smokescreen for more serious and damaging cyber mischief.”
This mirrors a prior warning from Ukraine’s ambassador, who told CBS News “If Russia decides on a full invasion, then we know that we should expect increased cyberattacks before that.”
In a speech on Feb. 15, Biden attempted to reach beyond Putin and into the hearts and minds of the Russian people, by stating clearly that the United States is not threatening Russia:
“You are not our enemy, and I do not believe you want a bloody, destructive war against Ukraine — a country and people with whom you share such deep ties of family history and culture.”
Biden went on to say that if Russia attacks Ukraine it will not be a “war of necessity” rather it will be “a war of choice.”
We can expect the speech to be edited and taken out of context for Russian media, but a few people will hear Biden’s message in full, and the hope is that if Putin does invade Ukraine, it will be obvious to the entire world that he did so, unprovoked.
In response to Biden’s transparency campaign, Putin has suggested that he will be withdrawing some of his troops, but so far the only evidence of this is footage published by Russia, which no one else has been able to authenticate — and which the U.S. and its allies do not consider credible. This is classic Putin: say one thing and do another.
Biden has made clear that he prefers to resolve this conflict via diplomacy, but he’s not taking any chances. He has been sending troops to bordering countries in preparation for whatever Putin does.
From Putin’s perspective, the entire crisis appears to be designed to convince Ukraine to make a written commitment to stay out of NATO. But for Ukraine, this is a non-starter. While some Ukrainian officials have suggested that making such a promise might be worth doing to prevent a war, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been very open about his desire to become part of both NATO and the European Union, and in fact, such a goal is stated in their constitution.
When and if Ukraine does become a NATO member, any invasion of Ukraine would be met with the full force of the NATO alliance, something Putin is desperate to prevent.
Unfortunately for him, his usual strong-arm tactics may backfire as more and more Ukrainians weigh the choice between democracy and a protective alliance and being on their own and at the mercy of a Russian leader who seems determined to take back their country and make it part of his own.
As the battle between Biden and Putin heats up, it has become clear that while Putin doesn’t entirely understand Biden, Biden is very aware of who he is dealing with in Putin. Like Trump, Putin needs to be seen as both credible and powerful. He also needs to make his enemies seem dishonest, weak, and impotent. Biden’s making this a lot harder for Putin.
Every time Biden reminds the world that Putin is poised to strike, he forces Putin to lie or make Biden’s prediction come true — rendering useless Putin’s final weapon of choice: unpredictability.
If Putin can’t lie with impunity, can’t operate in secrecy, and is now predictable…we have to wonder what he’s got left.
As for Biden, he has made it clear that the U.S. is prepared to retaliate should Russia invade any of the NATO countries surrounding Ukraine, reiterating “An attack on NATO is an attack on all of us.”
But what will Biden do if Russia only attacks Ukraine, a non-NATO country?
So far, this isn’t clear. Sure, there are sanctions, but reports indicate Putin has been preparing for those since 2014. Perhaps this is why Biden is trying to fight Putin on a different playing field. Biden may believe that as long as Putin is unable to covertly accomplish his agenda, he will rethink his position. Let’s hope so.
Unless Putin can be pressured into leaving Ukraine to the Ukrainians, there is no telling what kind of nightmare may unfold.