Trump Has Nowhere to Go but Down
If he blames his legal advisors for January 6 he’ll have to testify
One thing Trump has consistently demonstrated throughout his political career is an uncanny ability to undermine himself. Despite claims that Biden and the Attorney General are out to get him, it is Trump’s masterful execution of self-sabotage that will ultimately destroy him.
Trump and his lawyers have publicly claimed that his ill-advised actions surrounding the events of January 6 were the fault of his lawyers — lawyers who gave him bad information and bad advice. No one is buying it, but Trump seems to believe it’s a winning argument.
It’s not.
If Trump decides to pursue this strategy he will be required to testify. In addition, he will need to waive attorney-client privilege so the conversations about his defense can be heard.
“When a defendant invokes such a defense in court,” Smith’s office argued, “he waives attorney-client privilege for all communications concerning that defense, and the government is entitled to additional discovery and may conduct further investigation, both of which may require further litigation and briefing.” — Salon
Chutkin forces Trump’s hand by asking for his defense plan ahead of trial
Judge Chutkin, who will preside over the January 6 criminal case, has already notified Trump and his attorneys that she needs to see the the plan for Trump’s defense by January 15, 2024 — almost two months before the scheduled trial date. If Trump continues to insist, “My lawyers made me do it,” then Trump will be forced to testify—there will be no way around it — which is ironic since no lawyer who has ever met Trump would recommend that he take the stand on his behalf.
It’s one thing to testify in a civil case. It’s a very different thing to grandstand, obfuscate, ramble, and demur in a criminal case.
Of course, Trump doesn’t have to blame his behavior on bad legal advice. He can walk back the claim that he was relying on the likes of Sidney Powell and John Eastman to guide him in the wake of the 2020 election, and that’s why he thought the election was stolen and why he conspired with fake electors to overturn the results.
If he decides not to blame Powell and Eastman for his behavior, he won’t necessarily have to be a witness in his defense. But I am not sure how much that will help him, given the amount of public testimony Trump has already shared.
Granted, Trump wasn’t under oath for the comments he made in the past, but every time he opened his mouth to lie about the 2020 election, it was recorded. So, while a babbling, incoherent, and unhinged Trump testimony might be fun to watch, it won’t be necessary to ensure his conviction. He has already ensured it with his public statements, tweets, press conferences, and Truth Social posts — all available for the prosecution to cite as evidence.
Another option for Trump would be to pivot from his earlier statements and deny whatever he’s said before. There’s just one problem — the only way he could do that would be to testify in court.
You might say he’s damned if he does, and he’s damned if he doesn’t.
Delays won’t save Trump from the inevitable
The various motions Trump’s lawyers have filed to avoid a conviction on criminal charges ahead of 2024 are not likely to provide Trump with the relief he seeks.
Delay tactics may have worked well for Trump in the past when the country’s fate was not at stake, but things are different now. Nobody cared if Donald Trump was held accountable when he was a reality TV star whose goal was to fool the American public into believing that he was a successful businessman. Now, he’s a former and potentially future president of the United States. Now, people care.
Special Counsel Jack Smith has already made a formal request to Judge Chutkin to reject any attempts by Trump’s lawyers to either dismiss or delay the criminal trial. And unlike the lawyers working for Trump, Smith and his team understand the law and how to communicate it effectively.
When Trump’s legal team requested the charges be dismissed because the former president was merely trying to ensure election integrity, Smith responded by saying, “The defendant attempts to rewrite the indictment, claiming that it charges him with wholly innocuous, perhaps even admirable conduct — sharing his opinions about election fraud and seeking election integrity — when in fact it clearly describes the defendant’s fraudulent use of knowingly false statements as weapons in furtherance of his criminal plans.”
Trump’s team also attempted to have the charges dismissed by claiming they violated Trump’s First Amendment rights, to which Smith responded, “The First Amendment does not protect fraudulent speech or speech otherwise integral to criminal conduct, particularly crimes that attack the integrity and proper function of government processes. The defendant’s arguments are based on an inaccurate and self-serving characterization of the charges.
And Trump has attempted to frame the entire process as being part of a “selective and vindictive prosecution.” To which Smith’s team responded with the following:
Rather than challenging the indictment on its merits, the defendant’s motions attack the indictment by mischaracterizing its allegations, raising inapposite hypotheticals, and advancing arguments that are long on rhetoric but short on law. Stripped of those distractions, the defendant’s statutory and constitutional claims are entirely meritless.”
Poll shows Biden winning if Trump gets convicted
There was a lot of hand-wringing over a recent poll that showed Trump six points ahead of Biden. But what received less attention was a poll taken a few months ago that showed Trump would lose a substantial number of supporters if convicted in any of his upcoming criminal trials.
So, while it’s true that a convict may run for office, if Trump is convicted before the 2024 election, he won’t win.
When Republicans were polled last August, support for the former president was reported at 52%. But when pollsters asked those same Republicans who they would support if Trump were convicted of a serious crime, his support dropped by 17 points — to 35%.
If that doesn’t convince you that Trump is spiraling toward a loss in 2024, look at the results of the recent elections. Last Tuesday, Ohio voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state Constitution, a Democrat held onto his governorship in deep-red Kentucky, and in Virginia, Democrats took back control of the General Assembly.
Significantly, abortion has remained a key factor in every election since Roe v Wade was overturned, and let’s not forget it was Trump who appointed the three SCOTUS justices that made overturning Roe a reality. Trump still brags about it — even though in every State that has allowed the public to vote on abortion since Roe was overturned, the vote has been overwhelmingly pro-choice.
Freedom is on the ballot in 2024
Forget the culture wars. The election in 2024 will not be about what religion you believe in or even what political party you belong to. In 2024, freedom is on the ballot. The question every American will have to answer is whether they are willing to let Republicans continue to take away their freedoms — in some cases, freedoms Americans have enjoyed for years.
Whether it’s allowing politicians to do your family planning or controlling what your kids read, I do not believe the American people are willing to give up their rights.
You can say Biden is unpopular, but if he’s the candidate of choice and Trump is the one taking our freedoms away, people will vote for Biden. This is not going to change just because Biden isn’t popular. Popularity is overrated. Freedom is not.
I remember people saying George W. Bush won in 2004 because he’s the guy you wanted to hang out with at a BBQ. I believe we’ve finally reached the point where we understand that the person we want to eat BBQ with is not the person we want running our country. At least, I hope so.
If not, God help us.