Ukrainian Ingenuity Wins Against Brute Force
As Russia turns to North Korea and Iran for weapons
Editorial rights purchased from iStock. Photo by lherPhoto.
We’ve all heard the phrase,” Work smarter, not harder.” The Ukrainian Army has taken this to heart with a new strategy: fight smarter, not harder. Their latest stroke of ingenuity involves using decoys to trick Russian drones.
According to the Washington Post, “‘After a few weeks in the field, the decoys drew at least 10 Kalibr cruise missiles, an initial success that led Ukraine to expand the production of the replicas for broader use,’ said the senior Ukrainian official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military matters.’”
The beauty of this strategy is threefold.
1) It forces the Russians to use their cruise missiles to fight decoys.
2) It sabotages the Russian Army’s ability to assess its progress accurately.
3) It prevents the Russians from knowing how many missiles Ukrainians still possess.
As the Russian army wastes their cruise missiles on Ukrainian decoys, the real HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System) sent to Ukraine by the US is being fiercely protected by the Ukrainian Army, and for good reason. For the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine, Ukrainians can utilize HIMARS to target strategic sites as far as 50 miles away.
So far, Ukrainians have used HIMARS to wipe out significant Russian supply lines and arms depots. They have also successfully targeted Russian logistics and support hubs.
Continued use of HIMARS may force Russians to move their arms depots and control centers further from the front lines in hopes of being out of range of Ukrainian missiles — which would also put them further from Ukrainian targets.
Decoys in war are not new to Russia. However, their past experience may not help them. Until their drones learn to detect the difference between Ukrainian decoys and the real thing, Russia will continue to overestimate its progress and underestimate the weaponry Ukrainians still have at their disposal.
What’s more, if Ukraine successfully pushes the Russians further from the front lines, this could put Russia at a disadvantage in maintaining and capturing new territory.
Russians have another problem as well. Their supply of precision long-range missiles has dwindled, and due to the US embargo on microchips, they will have a hard time replenishing them.
Enter North Korea and Iran.
North Korea and Iran supplying arms to Russia
As Ukraine continues to perfect its asymmetrical warfare strategy, Russia attempts to gain the upper hand with reinforcements from North Korea and Iran. According to reports, artillery shells and rockets are being supplied to Putin by Pyongyang, and Iran is providing Russia with drones.
North Korea and Iran have nothing to lose by supplying Russia with weaponry, as both countries are already under heavy sanctions from several other countries. Therefore, we can expect them to continue responding to Russia’s requests as the war grinds on.
China, on the other hand, has so far respected sanctions against Russia and has refused to provide military equipment or components to Russia. The reason behind that decision is United States policy.
“Gina Raimondo, the commerce secretary, has repeatedly warned China that if Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, China’s largest computer chip maker, or other companies violate sanctions against Russia, the United States will effectively shut down those businesses, cutting off their access to the American technology they need to make semiconductors.”
(This is why the passage of the semiconductor legislation Congress recently approved is so essential. It will allow the United States to manufacture semiconductors using its own technology rather than relying on overseas manufacturing plants.)
With Russia cut off from the technology it needs to rebuild its military into a state-of-the-art fighting force, it has no choice but to appeal to those few countries willing to supply it with whatever equipment they have. So far, that looks like Iran and North Korea.
Looking back on our gross overestimation of Russia’s military capability at the beginning of the Ukraine war, one can’t help but wonder how advanced Iran and North Korea’s military capabilities are. My guess, and it’s just a guess, is that they are inferior to what the US and other allied nations are currently supplying to Ukraine.
Despite Putin’s recent call to increase his country’s Armed Forces, greater numbers of poorly equipped men with low morale may not be enough to win a war against an army of Ukrainians who are committed to fighting smarter, not harder, are supplied with sophisticated weaponry, and are motivated by the righteous cause of defending their sovereign nation against illegal aggression.
As we cross the six-month mark in Putin’s war against Ukraine, it’s beginning to look more and more like the underdog may win — a win that may finally end the Putin regime.